Stepwise Risk Outlook: What We're Watching Today, September 25, 2024

Global: Russia rules out nuclear testing as long as the US reciprocates

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov affirms that the Kremlin will not resume nuclear testing as long as the US refrains from such steps.

Our Take: After President Putin rescinded Russia's ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), and with arms control talks between the US and Russia non-existent, uncertainty has clouded Russia's nuclear posture. The Kremlin's announcement that it will adhere to the ban will ease Washington's heightened risk assessment, but monitoring activities of Russian nuclear forces and programs will continue, as trust is at a nadir and cooperative verification no longer on the table. While the US Congress has never ratified the CTBT, the US has not carried out a nuclear test since 1992. The last Russian test was in 1990. Only North Korea continues to carry out nuclear tests. With Russia's withdrawal, the CTBT has been ratified by 35 of the required