What Could Block The Iran Deal

US-Iran negotiations started off rocky this week in Switzerland. Iranian negotiators ended Sunday talks early over American threats to resume bombing if a deal is not reached. The walkout followed days of Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Iran’s declared closure of the Strait of Hormuz (although ships continued to transit the waterway). Nonetheless, Pakistani and Qatari mediators expressed optimism following the second day of talks, and some concrete progress was announced. Both the US and Iran, plus energy importers and Gulf countries, deeply want a durable deal and are clearly committed to substantive negotiations. If a deal is not reached, it will likely be disagreements over the conflict in Lebanon or misalignment on the scope of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program that scuttle it. Markets are holding steady on optimism around the new talks, but the hurdles are significant. A failure to come to a deal will put a stop to sanctions relief and $300 billion in development projects,