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ARTICLE · 18 DECEMBER 2024

What To Expect In Gaza In 2025

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Nearly fifteen months after October 7, 2023, prospects for conflict in the Middle East in 2025 will be shaped by the continued fighting in Gaza and fragile truce in Lebanon, accompanied by a destabilized Syria.

GlobalGovernment, Public Sector

Nearly fifteen months after October 7, 2023, prospects for conflict in the Middle East in 2025 will be shaped by the continued fighting in Gaza and fragile truce in Lebanon, accompanied by a destabilized Syria. While regional actors may adopt a different modus operandi during the second year of this conflict, including possibly agreeing on a temporary halt in the fighting, the trajectory is not in the direction of conflict resolution, but rather toward conflict management.

The Trump Factor

The consequences of the Gaza and Lebanon crises will continue to reverberate through next year. US policy under President-elect Donald Trump will impact developments in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and the wider region in 2025. His national security nominations are highly supportive of the current Israeli government's agenda, and hawkish toward Iran and its regional proxy activity. It remains an open question whether Trump will live up to his campaign pledge of "ending all wars", and

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