Nearly fifteen months after October 7, 2023, prospects for
conflict in the Middle East in 2025 will be shaped by the continued
fighting in Gaza and fragile truce in Lebanon, accompanied by a
destabilized Syria. While regional actors may adopt a different
modus operandi during the second year of this conflict, including
possibly agreeing on a temporary halt in the fighting, the
trajectory is not in the direction of conflict resolution, but
rather toward conflict management.
The Trump Factor
The consequences of the Gaza and Lebanon crises will continue to
reverberate through next year. US policy under President-elect
Donald Trump will impact developments in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and
the wider region in 2025. His national security nominations are
highly supportive of the current Israeli government's agenda,
and hawkish toward Iran and its regional proxy activity. It remains
an open question whether Trump will live up to his campaign pledge
of "ending all wars", and