Log in or register
Share on LinkedInShare on LinkedIn

ARTICLE · 28 MARCH 2025

Q1 Economic Outlook With Stephen Poloz

Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Explore more from Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP

With U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First" trade policy weighing heavy on the minds of Canadians, what can businesses and policymakers in Canada do to navigate these challenges effectively?

CanadaInternational Law
Stephen Poloz
Stephen Poloz
Maureen Killoran
Maureen Killoran
Author LinkedIn connections

With U.S. President Donald Trump's "America First" trade policy weighing heavy on the minds of Canadians, what can businesses and policymakers in Canada do to navigate these challenges effectively? On top of a looming trade war and ongoing threats to make Canada the 51st state, uncertainty is further amplified by political upheaval in Ottawa and a federal election on the horizon.

Even though Canada's unemployment rate dropped in January as the economy posted solid job gains, adding 76,000 jobs, will that trend continue as organizations consider how best to shore up if tariffs come into effect and cut into their bottom line? Some small manufacturers have already made job cuts even with a 30-day pause on proposed tariffs.

We operate a free-to-view policy, asking only that you register in order to read all of our content. Please login or register to view the rest of this article.

Register for freeORLog in

The content of this article is intended to provide a general guide to the subject matter. Specialist advice should be sought about your specific circumstances.

View source

Related Articles

Legal Intelligence Newsletters: sign up for the latest legal and regulatory news on your chosen topics

Read more about

See more popular content from

Article

Canada Announces New Counter-Tariffs And Support Measures Following US Tariff Actions

Canada has announced sweeping counter-tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on approximately C$27.6 billion of US imports, effective September 8, 2026, in direct response to President Trump's 50% Section 338 tariffs on Canadian goods. The measures target key sectors including steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, and electronics, while the federal government simultaneously rolls out C$7.5 billion in support for affected businesses and workers. Understanding whether products qualify as US goods under Canada's markin
CanadaInternational Law
Cassels
Cassels
Article

From Duties To Import Bans: The Canada–U.S. Tariff War After The Collapse Of Negotiations

The United States has escalated its trade dispute with Canada by imposing import bans on alcoholic beverages, dairy products, and motorcycles under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, while Canada responds with matched counter-tariffs on $27.6 billion worth of U.S. goods. Following the collapse of bilateral negotiations in August 2026, both nations have entered an unprecedented phase of trade restrictions that extends beyond traditional tariffs to include procurement exclusions and threatens further auto
GlobalInternational Law
Borden Ladner Gervais LLP
Borden Ladner Gervais LLP
Article

Canada’s Counter-Tariffs On US Goods: A Primer On What Canadian Businesses Need To Know

Effective September 8, 2026, Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. goods in response to the initial 50% tariffs imposed by the US under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. To operationalize these measures, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) issued Customs Notice 26-23, establishing binding administrative rules on how the surtax will be applied, calculated, and collected.
CanadaInternational Law
Fasken
Fasken
Article

Provisional Duties On Chinese Plywood

The Canada Border Services Agency has issued a preliminary determination imposing provisional anti-dumping duties ranging from 0% to 227.5% on decorative and non-structural plywood imports from China, effective August 24, 2026. With the Canadian International Trade Tribunal scheduled to hold public hearings in November 2026, the significant disparity between duty rates for cooperative versus non-cooperative exporters underscores the critical importance of timely participation in CBSA investigations.
CanadaInternational Law
Millar Kreklewetz
Millar Kreklewetz
Article

Gloves Off: Canada Answers U.S. Section 338 Tariffs Dollar-for-Dollar As Washington Escalates With Import Bans

Canada and the United States have entered a new phase of trade conflict, with Canada implementing retaliatory surtaxes on C$27.6 billion of U.S. goods while the United States escalates beyond tariffs to outright import prohibitions on Canadian alcohol, dairy products, and motorcycles. The dispute now extends into government procurement policy, raising questions about compliance strategies and supply chain restructuring as both nations tighten customs enforcement.
CanadaInternational Law
McCarthy Tétrault
McCarthy Tétrault
Article

The Trade War Tit-for-tat Continues: United States Responds To Canada’s Retaliatory Surtaxes With New Tariffs And Import Prohibitions

Canada and the United States have escalated their trade war with new retaliatory tariffs and import prohibitions taking effect in September 2026. What specific goods are now subject to these measures, and how do the complex layers of tariffs interact to impact cross-border commerce? This comprehensive analysis breaks down the latest developments in the deteriorating Canada-U.S. economic relationship.
CanadaInternational Law
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Article

Canada Imposes Counter-Tariffs On C$27.6-Billion Of U.S. Imports, Effective September 8, 2026

Canada has announced C$27.6-billion in counter-tariffs on U.S. imports, effective September 8, 2026, targeting over 700 product classifications across steel, aluminum, dairy, electronics, and other sectors. The measures represent a dollar-for-dollar response to U.S. Section 338 tariffs, with rates ranging from 15% to 50% depending on the product category. The government has also introduced a C$7.5-billion support package for affected Canadian workers and businesses.
CanadaInternational Law
Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP
Article

Canada And The European Union Chart A New Course: Beyond CETA Toward A Strategic Economic Partnership

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has invited Canada to become the first associate member of the EU, with Prime Minister Mark Carney accepting the proposal to pursue an "Alliance for the Future." The partnership would build on existing bilateral agreements with Germany, Spain, and Italy, potentially enabling free flow of goods, services, and workers across strategic sectors including energy, critical minerals, artificial intelligence, defence, and advanced manufacturing.
GlobalInternational Law
Gowling WLG
Gowling WLG
Article

Elbows Back Up: U.S. Section 338 Tariffs, Canada’s Retaliatory Surtaxes And The Current Tariff Landscape

As Canada and the United States escalate their trade dispute with new retaliatory tariffs, businesses face mounting compliance challenges across multiple sectors. This analysis examines the comprehensive tariff landscape affecting bilateral trade, including Canada's September 8, 2026 surtaxes on U.S. imports and the corresponding American section 338 tariffs, detailing rates, exemptions, and the legal frameworks governing these measures.
CanadaInternational Law
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Article

CBSA Anti-Dumping And Countervailing Duty Investigations: Truck And Bus Tires From China – What Producers, Exporters, And Importers Need To Know

Canada has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations into truck and bus tires from China, with preliminary determinations expected by November 30, 2026. Producers, exporters, and importers—including companies from Korea, Japan, and Singapore with Chinese operations—face critical September and October deadlines to submit comprehensive responses or risk significantly higher duty rates.
CanadaInternational Law
Gowling WLG
Gowling WLG
Article

The Trade War Tit-for-tat Continues: United States Responds To Canada’s Retaliatory Surtaxes With New Tariffs And Import Prohibitions

Canada and the United States have escalated their trade war with new retaliatory tariffs and import prohibitions taking effect in September 2026. What specific goods are now subject to these measures, and how do the complex layers of tariffs interact to impact cross-border commerce? This comprehensive analysis breaks down the latest developments in the deteriorating Canada-U.S. economic relationship.
CanadaInternational Law
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Article

Elbows Back Up: U.S. Section 338 Tariffs, Canada’s Retaliatory Surtaxes And The Current Tariff Landscape

As Canada and the United States escalate their trade dispute with new retaliatory tariffs, businesses face mounting compliance challenges across multiple sectors. This analysis examines the comprehensive tariff landscape affecting bilateral trade, including Canada's September 8, 2026 surtaxes on U.S. imports and the corresponding American section 338 tariffs, detailing rates, exemptions, and the legal frameworks governing these measures.
CanadaInternational Law
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Article

Canadian Prime Minister Announces ‘Productivity Mega Deduction’

Canada's new Productivity Mega Deduction permanently provides immediate expensing for a wide range of depreciable property and Canadian development expenses, dramatically expanding the scope beyond the previously announced Productivity Super Deduction. The measure aims to reduce Canada's marginal effective tax rate on new business investment to 6.4%, positioning it as the lowest among major economies and less than half the U.S. rate.
CanadaTax
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Article

OSC Releases Crypto Asset Survey Results

The Ontario Securities Commission's 2026 survey reveals significant shifts in Canadian cryptocurrency adoption, awareness, and sentiment. With ownership rates more than doubling since 2023 and a growing belief that crypto will play a key role in Canada's financial system, the findings paint a picture of an evolving landscape where traditional financial advisors increasingly recommend crypto investments, yet regulatory awareness remains surprisingly low among the general population.
CanadaFinance and Banking
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP
Osler, Hoskin & Harcourt LLP