We are certainly in tumultuous times and the tumult keeps on coming. We are all truly appalled by the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. That is still likely to play out for some time and its impact is not just rippling, but cascading through the rest of the world. Much of Europe and the rest of the world had already been caught out by a sudden shortness of energy, labour, housing and food, a pull back from capital markets, and a crypto-collapse leading to a 1970s style inflationary environment, whilst demand continues to surge post-covid.
Leaving Ukraine aside, I often wonder how so many expert economists did not see these shortages and impacts of rebounding recovery coming in the first half of 2021. That said and as an aside, the ability of economies to bounce back quickly after a pandemic is not without precedent and, in this context, I highly recommend the insights to be taken from this short article “Coronavirus from the perspective of 17th century plague” by Neil
