Where Dependence Sits

What the OpenAI/Microsoft and Anthropic/Amazon Deals Reveal about Power, Optionality and Value in AI

Some of the most consequential strategic decisions in frontier AI are being made away from research labs. They are being taken by the executives negotiating collaborations between AI companies and the technology hyperscalers who have become their indispensable partners.

Two deals – OpenAI/Microsoft and Anthropic/Amazon – reward close examination, and demonstrate that these companies have taken fundamentally different routes, although both paths create significant interdependence between the AI companies and their partners.

OpenAI’s collaboration with Microsoft began in 2019 as an investment with a $1 billion headline value. Since then, it has evolved into an unprecedented partnership, involving deep technological and financial interdependence.