Black Friday 2025: Retail Reality Check

The Black Friday weekend confirmed what our 2025 Holiday Survey predicted: The holiday weekend's dominance continues to erode. The Ankura Performance Improvement team completed store visits in more than 15 cities nationwide and observed that the hype that once defined this retail holiday has faded. The overwhelming theme was "safe and stale" — retailers leaned heavily on broad, predictable storewide discounts in the 30–50% range, creating a promotional environment that lacked urgency and excitement. Merchants appeared to play it safe, relying on familiar discount structures rather than differentiating through unique product stories or innovative promotions. Gone were the iconic "must-have" items or theatrical doorbusters that once drove urgency. Stores generally missed the boat leaning into current events and cultural moments, leaving assortments feeling generic, not timely. Instead, shoppers gravitated toward experiences and essentials, signaling a shift in