What Success Means For COP21

If you want to know what how a rational optimist defines success for COP21, Rob Stavins's latest post. Here's his "Paris Scorecard" for what success will look like:

• Include approximately 90% of global emissions in the set of INDCs that are submitted and part of the Paris Agreement (compared with 14% in the current commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol). This will definitely be achieved.
• Establish credible reporting and transparency requirements. It is likely that this will be achieved.
• Begin to set up a system to finance climate adaptation (and mitigation) — the famous $100 billion commitment. This is likely to be achieved.
• Agree to return to negotiations periodically, to revisit the ambition and structure of the INDCs. It is likely this will be achieved.