A Misplaced Belief In The Permanence Of The Present

Despite all the historic evidence showing a rapid pace of change in technology and societies, when it comes to investment, the dominant thinking is that things will stay as they are forever. Thus tobacco companies command valuations implying they will exist forever; oil companies trade as if fossil fuels will continue to provide four-fifths of our primary energy for centuries; and banks will act as if irresponsible behaviour is a fact of life.

Apparently this misplaced belief in the permanence of the present is hard-wired into human thinking, from an investment perspective anyway. But it is a trait that is unhelpful when trying to decide which companies will be tomorrow's winners. This is why we have developed our four themed approach to highlight long-term growth trends within our economies as they become more sustainable – that is delivering a better quality of life from less resources. In the past this has guided us to invest ahead of the market into areas such