The 2026 Iran Crisis And The Need For Temporary State Aid Measures

Since February 2026, the situation in Iran and the wider region has escalated. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already led to significant increases in global prices for oil and gas, with significant price effects felt across sectors of the European economy in all Member States. Between 27 February 2026 and 20 March 2026 alone, crude oil prices increased by 51% and natural gas prices by 85%, while attacks on energy infrastructure, most notably on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas terminal, led to prolonged loss of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.

The European Central Bank confirmed at its 19 March 2026 policy statement that the Iran crisis made the economic outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation through higher energy prices and downside risks for economic growth.