Quarterly Statistics: The Drawing Of Lines And Conclusions

There is always a temptation to read too much into statistics, to extrapolate from them conclusions which, on closer inspection, aren't true.

Jersey's financial services quarterly statistics are published today, and they show that bank deposits in the Island fell from £128.4bn to £107.8bn during Q2 2016. Yes, the graph goes down – it is a decline, but it's not one from which anyone can or should conclude that there are problems within Jersey's finance industry.

The main causes for the decline are known: it has been well documented that two banks have restructured. As ABN Amro Bank readies itself for a return to public ownership, it is retrenching back to its home base and consolidating its overseas presence; the HSBC Bank Middle East move from Jersey to Dubai reflects a natural migration for regulatory purposes.