ARTICLE · 16 JANUARY 2026

Prospects For Regime Change, Survival And Stability In Iran

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The most recent round of popular unrest in Iran has quickly grown to historic size, with protests erupting in every one of Iran's 31 provinces and the estimated death toll...

IranGovernment, Public Sector

The most recent round of popular unrest in Iran has quickly grown to historic size, with protests erupting in every one of Iran's 31 provinces and the estimated death toll for protesters rising into the thousands. Alongside threats of US military intervention, the uprising likely represents the most serious threat to the survival of the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979. Despite mounting challenges, however, the fall of the resilient and insulated regime in Tehran does not seem imminent. Nonetheless, the current demonstrations and the US' response carry serious implications for Iran's stability going forward, its regional power projection, and the US' new interventionist foreign policy doctrine more broadly.

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