News outlets, including The Guardian and CNBC, were reporting
and market watchers were opining in early 2019 that a slowing world
economy forebodes a major global economic shift—possibly
another recession. By mid-August, the concern found renewed
attention when analysts pointed to an inverted yield curve in the
United States Government bond market as a historical precursor to a
recession.
According to
Credit Suisse, a recession has occurred, on average, 22 months
following such an inversion in past cycles. Whether the
inverted yield curve is a reliable indicator of an imminent
recession is yet to be known; however, activity in the bond market
does suggest that investors are looking for alternatives to
standard equity investments.